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Chart Advisor

1/ 11 Tests of 200-Week MA by Brent Crude

2/ 10/40 WMA Crossovers

3/ Where is Brent Oil Headed?

4/ Precious Metal Stays Equally Strong

5/ What Does Relative Strength Say?

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11 Tests of 200-Week MA by Brent Crude

While major momentum and directional moves are expected from Brent Crude by analyzing crossovers of 10- and 40-period Moving Averages, the attempt to look at a larger picture reveals important technical events over the past 12 months. After testing the high of $ 125.18 in June 2022, a corrective decline followed. Subsequently, Brent tested and found support at the 200-week MA for the first time in March 2023. From that time until today over 12 months, Brent has tested 200-week MA over 11 times and has bounced back from there. The 200-week MA presently rests at $76.87.

Courtesy of Optuma

10/40 WMA Crossovers

Even a casual glance highlights the importance of 10- and 40-week moving average crossovers. Each time when the 10-week MA has crossed above or under the 40-week MA, it has led to a significant directional move in the Brent prices. The moves have stayed in the range of 19% to 73% each time this has happened; the largest one was the post-COVID move which was that of a massive 225%. This outlier aside, it is beyond doubt the crossover of 10- and 40-week MA can fairly be relied upon to establish potential directional moves.

However, at least as of now, the recent negative crossover of 10- and 40-week MA (i.e., 10-week MA crossing under 40-week MA) in December last year has failed to result in any directional downtrend. The reason for this is the existence of an all-important 200-week MA that has provided support at each time it was tested.

Courtesy of Optuma

Where is Brent Oil Headed?

Although Brent has tested 200-week MA 11 times over the past 12 months, the price action over the past quarter has led to the formation of a small bullish ascending triangle. The lower edge of this technically bullish formation coincides with the 200-week MA which is currently placed at $76.87. Going by the classical price measurement implications, Brent can be expected to test $89-91 over the coming weeks. Any close below 78 will negate this technical setup.

Courtesy of Optuma

Precious Metal Stays Equally Strong

Gold (XAUUSD) has stayed much stronger over time as compared to crude Oil. From a technical perspective, the precious metal made a high at $ 2079 in August 2020; after this, the zone of $2050-2075 has been tested multiple times. Each time the precious metal went near this zone, it found strong resistance. Importantly, this level has been tested once again; Gold has closed at its weekly high and any thrust that takes the precious metal above $ 2085 will infuse further strength. The longer it stays above $2075-2085, the stronger the chances of it moving higher. However, in the event of any retracement, a move below $1975 will push the commodity under prolonged consolidation once again.

Courtesy of Optuma

What Does Relative Strength Say?

The relative performance of Brent Oil against Gold (XAUUSD) has its phases of up and down moves. Recently, by and large, while Gold has stayed relatively stronger against Brent, the RS line of Brent against Gold has flattened over the past couple of months.

Courtesy of Optuma

About This Week's Author

Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA serves as a member of the Regulatory Committee formed under the CMT Association, India. He is a capital market professional with experience spanning over two decades. His core expertise includes consulting in Portfolio/Funds Management and Advisory Services. Milan is the founder of ChartWizard FZE, and Gemstone Equity Research and Advisory Services.

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