💬 Robert Downey Jr. Will Have an Irritatingly Charming Speech, and Other Oscar Predictions

The Academy Awards are like all the best parts of my birthday and Christmas: a special day that only comes once a year, everyone is celebrating, a day where I will randomly cry (birthday), throw a tantrum (days leading up to my birthday), or both (Christmas). 

I am snug as a bug in a rug with Oppenheimer's near-certain chance of winning Best Picture, and also best actor, and it really deserves makeup and hairstyling too.¹ May December deserved more; Anatomy of a Fall is owed much less. The race I’m most uncertain about is … production design! Barbieland was elastic and ecstatic, but Poor Things conjured a funhouse of freaky fantasies. I know Robert Downey Jr. will have an irritatingly charming speech. The man gives good bemused appreciation. I can’t wait to hear Da'Vine Joy Randolph’s — The Holdovers was fine, but I rewatched a few episodes of High Fidelity the other day and God, she’s so good. I’d join the Weeknd’s Idol season two prayer circle if that show pivoted to being only about Randolph.

Not to get all saccharine: but the real winners in this whole awards season are all of us! Not in a ‘friends you make along the way’ sense, but in a ‘they’re bringing back the nominee presentation from 2009’ sense. All my life I’ve had to fight! 

Obviously there will be a live Hung Up chat about the carpet and the awards. But until then: what are your no guts no glory predictions, the who should win and the who will win, the uncomfortable opinions circulating in your group chats and at your dinner tables (Emma Stone’s La La Land Oscar was premature! She does career-best work in Poor Things!), and any other Oscar night-related ephemera.

A special shoutout to my sister Hilton Dresden and her hilarious and mostly correct (she didn’t like Oppenheimer) should win-will win Oscar ballot: “I’m just going to say the thing you’re not supposed to say: I love you, but I love me more (if you don’t hear Samantha Jones’ voice in your head right now, burn in hell). What I’m trying to say is that Ryan Gosling should win for Barbie.” These are the kind of thoughts I’m looking for here — not because they’re right, but because they’re fun.

Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall 
Barbie 
The Holdovers 
Killers of the Flower Moon 
Maestro 
Oppenheimer 
Past Lives
Poor Things 
The Zone of Interest 

Best Directing
Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)

Best Actor in a Leading Role
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Colman Domingo (Rustin)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)

Best Actress in a Leading Role
Annette Bening (Nyad)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

Best Actress in a Supporting Role
there Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
America Ferrera (Barbie)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction (Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson)
Barbie (Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach)
Oppenheimer (Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan)
Poor Things (Screenplay by Tony McNamara)
The Zone of Interest (Written by Jonathan Glazer)

Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall (Screenplay by Justine Triet and Arthur Harari)
The Holdovers (Written by David Hemingson)
Maestro (Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer)
May December (Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik)
Past Lives (Written by Celine Song)

Best Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Elemental
Nimona
Robot Dreams
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 

Best Documentary Feature Film
Bobi Wine: The People’s President
The Eternal Memory
Four Daughters
To Kill a Tiger
20 Days in Mariupol

Best International Feature Film
Io Capitano (Italy)
Perfect Days (Japan)
Society of the Snow (Spain)
The Teacher’s Lounge (Germany)
The Zone of Interest (United Kingdom)

Best Animated Short Film
Letter to a Pig 
Ninety-Five Senses 
Our Uniform
Pachyderme 
War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko

Best Live-Action Short Film
The After 
Invincible
Knight of Fortune
Red, White and Blue 
The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar 

Best Documentary Short Film
The ABCs of Book Banning
The Barber of Little Rock
Island in Between
The Last Repair Shop
Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó 

Best Cinematography
El Conde
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Poor Things 

Best Costume Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Golda
Maestro 
Oppenheimer 
Poor Things
Society of the Snow 

Best Original Song
“The Fire Inside” from Flamin’ Hot (Music and Lyric by Diane Warren)
“I’m Just Ken” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt)
“It Never Went Away” from American Symphony (Music and Lyric by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson)
“Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon (Music and Lyric by Scott George)
“What Was I Made For?” from Barbie (Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell)

Best Original Score
American Fiction 
Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Production Design
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Film Editing
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things

Best Sound
The Creator
Maestro
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning Part One
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest 

Best Visual Effects
The Creator
Godzilla: Minus One
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
Mission: Impossible — Dead Reckoning, Part One 
Napoleon

One more thing if you’ve scrolled this far: I was on CBC’s Commotion with Elamin Abdelmahmoud setting very low expectations for any winners’ speeches 😇

What do we want from award show speeches? CBC Episode